Sugar’s share of H1 July cane crush expected at 47.4%: analysts
H1 July anhydrous ethanol output expected to increase 32.7% on year: survey
Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 2.951 million mt in the first half of July, down 2.6% year on year, an S&P Global Platts survey of 10 analysts showed July 21.
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Of the analysts surveyed, the cane crush estimate ranged from 42.3 million mt to 47.7 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 45.2 million mt, a 3.3% drop year on year.
Weather in the Center-South region was favorable for crushing during H1 July, with an estimated 0.2 days lost to rain and about 259-265 mills active as of July 16.
The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 47.4%, down from 47.9% a year earlier. Although Brazilian producers were taking advantage of the recent high prices of hydrous and anhydrous ethanol, long-term expectations are for mills to continue to maximize their sugar production, given the increased profitability of sugar production over ethanol production.
Platts assessed hydrous ethanol ex-mill Ribeirao Preto converted into raw sugar equivalent at 16.89 cents/lb on July 20. The October NY11 sugar futures contract settled July 20 at 17.41 cents/lb, providing a 0.52 cent/lb premium to hydrous ethanol in raw sugar equivalent.
Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 145.0 kg/mt, an increase of 2.1% year on year.
Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 2.10 billion liters, an increase of 3.0% year on year.
Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 1.24 billion liters, according to the average of the analysts’ responses to the survey. This would be a decrease of 10.7% year on year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H1 July was expected to be 856 million liters, an increase of 32.7% year on year, according to the survey.
Total ethanol output from corn is expected to be 126 million liters, an increase of 27.3% year on year. Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 81 million liters, an increase of 14.3% year on year, and anhydrous ethanol output in H1 July was expected to be 45 million liters, an increase of 60.2% year on year.
Industry association UNICA is expected to release its official production figures in the upcoming days.