The early availability of Apple’s latest iPhone 13 series in India along with developed markets like the US will help the company post strong year-on-year growth in India yearly shipments touching upto 5 million in 2021, analysts said. They, however, added that older-generation iPhone 12 and iPhone 11 will drive the majority of growth due to discounts and price cuts.
Market tracker Counterpoint believes that Apple could touch 2.4% market share in the october-December quarter with yearly unit shipments crossing 4 million. CMR, on the other hand, estimates close to 3% market share in 2021, with iPhone shipments potentially touching the 5 million mark.
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Apple on Tuesday night launched its iPhone 13 series, which includes four new iPhones – iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max. The iPhone 13 mini will be available at a starting price of Rs 69,900, while the iPhone 13 will be available at a starting price of Rs 79,900. The iPhone 13 pro will be available at Rs 1,19,990 and iPhone 13 Pro Max will be available at a starting price of Rs 1,29,900.
“Customers in Australia, Canada, China, Germany, India, Japan, the UK, the US, and more than 30 other countries and regions will be able to pre-order iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max…availability beginning Friday, September 24,” Apple said in a statement.
“Apple has now a very aggressive entry point starting with iPhone SE 2020 and will go till iPhone 13 pro Max. However, we believe that it’s the iPhone 12 series that is likely to gain traction in India and take on the baton from iPhone 11, that until last quarter captured around 60% of the overall iPhone sales,” Tarun Pathak, associate director at Counterpoint Research said.
Pathak said that it was observed that the share of the new iPhone within overall Apple sales during the launch quarter increasing year-on-year and this year it will be the same driven by iPhone 13. “The uptick is due to the faster availability of new models in India and more users who are willing to trade in older iPhone devices. Apple continues to go aggressive on trade-ins as well,” Pathak said.
Navkendar Singh, research director at IDC said that Apple is not as severely challenged by supplies as some other brands, although ongoing supply chain and logistics concerns can impact to some extent.
The older-generation iPhone 12 series and the new iPhone 13 series will help Apple increase its market share, capitalizing on the enduring aspirational appeal of the iPhones amongst Indian consumers.
As per CMR estimates, Apple’s India revenue are likely touching $3 billion, marking a significant 60% growth in the ongoing year.
“With its ramped-up share of domestic manufacturing, aggressive marketing initiatives, including the online retail store, Apple is poised for its best-year ever in India,” Prabhu Ram, Head-Industry Intelligence Group (IIG), CMR said. “The older-generation iPhone 12 series and the new iPhone 13 series will help Apple increase its market share.”
“2/3rd of iPhone sales in 2021 have come from iPhone 11 and iPhone 12. With the launch of iPhone 13, we should expect aggressive affordability offers on iPhone 11 and 12 in next few weeks, which can help Apple sustain its good run which started in Q4 2020,” Singh said.
Counterpoint’s Pathak also believe that the iPhone 12 will benefit from the price cut the most, even better than iPhone 11, and is likely to be the best seller for the festive season.
“This will also help the premium to reach a record share of overall smartphone market in India with Apple likely to lead in the launch quarter,” Pathak said.
Faisal Kawoosa, founder and analyst at TechArc said that the recent price cut in 12 series will further see more people buying it around this time who may not go with the latest model. “Historically in India previous-gen iPhones have been contributing maximum to the iPhone sales but iPhone 13 will also catch up fast.
As per TechArc estimates, Apple could end up with close to 70% market share in the Rs 50,000 and above price segment, where Samsung has recently brought its Samsung’s Fold and Flip 3 as latest offering in market.
Apple CEO Tim Cook recently said India, along with other emerging markets like Vietnam and Latin America, grew in double digits in the June quarter, driven by strong sales of iPhones in line with expectations that Apple would post its best annual performance in India after it started selling iPhones in the country.
As per CMR India, Apple recorded 140% year-on-year growth during the quarter with Apple iPhone 11 accounting for a bulk of the iPhone shipments, contributing over 60% towards overall iPhone sales. Counterpoint, on the other hand, said that iPhone shipments grew 144% on year to cross 600,000 shipments in the quarter. The brand maintained its leading position in the ultra-premium segment (>INR 45,000 or ~$650) with more than 49% share.
Despite the lockdowns, Apple has recently done well to expand its online channel presence including its online store and that has helped, analysts added.
Apple’s contract manufacturers Foxconn and Wistron started expanding their India operations, bringing down iPhone imports sharply in the past six months, experts said.
Last year, Apple’s iPhone 12 accounted for 24% of all 5G smartphone shipments globally, despite a late launch in October. This year, with an earlier launch for the iPhone 13 and continued strong appetite for iOS, Counterpoint sees Apple taking 33% of all global 5G shipments.
“The US will again be the biggest shipment driver globally…even without any ‘must-have’ specs, there will be a tremendous appetite for upgrading because the iOS base is old in the US. Holding periods are nearing four years. iOS faithful are ready for new devices,” Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America at Counterpoint said.