India’s oil consumption is forecast to rise from 4.8 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2019 to 7.2 mbd in 2030 and 9.2 mbd in 2050, as per the IEA’s key scenario based on stated policies. The projection shows the centrality of oil in the Indian economy over the next three decades and runs counter to BP’s forecast last year that estimated the country’s oil demand to peak in 2025.
Under the IEA’s stated policies scenario, the global oil demand will peak in 2030 at 103 mbd and stay unchanged until 2050. China’s oil demand is forecast to expand a fifth to 15.7 mbd in 2030 before declining to 13.4 mbd in 2050. India will remain the third-largest oil consumer in 2030, as it is today, behind the US and China.
The US is projected to stay at the top of the table with a consumption of 17.4 mbd in 2030, lower than 18.4 mbd in 2019. Europe is projected to witness a steep 20% decline in oil demand from 13 mbd in 2019 to 10.4 mbd in 2030.
Indian’s natural gas demand is projected to double to 133 billion cubic meters in 2030 from 64 BCM in 2019 as against a 12% rise in global gas demand. Gas consumption in China is forecast to expand 50% to 454 BCM by 2030 while it’s expected to contract by a quarter to 74 BCM in Japan. In Europe, the gas demand is expected to fall 4% to 587 BCM while in the US, the consumption would stay at roughly the same level as today.
Indian refining capacity is projected to expand 30% to 6.9 mbd by 2030 while the global capacity is expected to increase just 3%. The refining capacity is expected to contract in North America, Europe, Russia, Japan and Korea but will expand in China, Middle East, and Africa, as per IEA’s projections.