U.S. stock futures headed lower Wednesday, ahead of a massive slate of economic data in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday.
- Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average YM00, -0.45% fell 114 points, or 0.3%, to 35652
- Futures on the S&P 500 ES00, -0.42% lost 13 points, or 0.3%, to 4676
- Futures on the Nasdaq 100 NQ00, -0.51% dropped 48 points, or 0.3%, to 16264
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.55% rose 195 points, or 0.55%, to 35814, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.17% increased 8 points, or 0.17%, to 4691, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.50% dropped 80 points, or 0.5%, to 15775.
What’s driving the market
One of the stories of the last few days has been the rise in real, or inflation-adjusted, yields. The 10-year yield on Treasury-inflated-protected securities closed above -1% for the first time in three weeks. That comes as Europe battles a wave of coronavirus cases, and as the market took a hawkish interpretation to the renomination of Jerome Powell to chair the Fed.
“I suspect they’ll stay negative for the rest of my career so while higher real yields are likely, I suspect that this is a trade rather than a structural long-term journey given likely long-term financial repression,” said Jim Reid, head of thematic research at Deutsche Bank.
The economics slate includes the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, weekly jobless claims, personal income, consumer spending, PCE price index, consumer sentiment and durable-goods orders. On top of that, there’s the release of the Federal Open Market Committee minutes from November, when the Fed decided to taper its bond purchases.
Michael Kramer of Mott Capital Management said in a blog post that he expects the Fed minutes to show the option of a faster taper being discussed in December — giving the market a few weeks “to break Powell into submission and not taper faster.”
“It may not seem evident when looking at the broader averages, but in the bond ETFs, the dollar index , and the Treasury market, you see massive shifts taking place. All of this is pointing to tightening financial conditions, which are not favorable for stocks,” added Kramer.